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Market Report: Trends, Tendencies, Demographics, Future Prediction

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❶The bolus continues to move.

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Similar to the THM is a movement to fulltiming. The Greatest Generation were pack-rats and hoarders. The Boomers were too but to a lesser degree. Boomers are starting to come around. Mcmansions are fast becoming passe. The antiques market is not any better now than last year because nothing has changed: The abundance and the weak demand are the reason for weakness in the marketplace. Second meanwhile, Boomers are selling their mcmansions and are buying something smaller with no stairs, no lawnmower, and a view of something, e.

The trailing generations are not buying houses or condos. Owning real estate for them hinders their upward mobility and lateral mobility — they gotta move frequently, maybe every 12 months. And, when they move, they move to where the action is: Silicon Valley, big city, chic urban, etc. Because they are moving into condos and Condos are in urban landscapes.

Because condos are in urban areas, Boomers are changing their style to whatever looks good in a condo. Hence, the reason rustic, primitive, shabby, Victorian brown, etc. The current market is stagnant for a long-lasting reason: I remember several of my profs from the s and early s tell us students about the python and the bolus.

The timeline from to the present is the snake and we the Boomers are the bolus moving through the conduit. In the beginning it was the demand for single family homes on a plot with a white picket fence, then coonskin hats, then school infrastructure, then VWs and college infrastructure, then…..

The bolus continues to move. Furthermore, uncertainty in the marketplace is manifested by dealers consuming their existing stock, commonly at diminished margins or at a loss, rather than refreshing inventories at auctions. Older dealers who remain optimistic in spite of the obvious demographics either cannot adapt or are in denial or are delusional or suffer from a combination of all of the above. Thus their retail art and antiques shops are depleted and often look haggard, a combination which tends to perpetuate demise.

Hence collectors have been and are buying at auction because product availability is often far better and less expensive at auction than in retail shops. The overall effect on the market is descending retail and wholesale prices across the board. Antiques show promoters and dealers who ignore or are oblivious of the trend will crash and burn or wither away. The show business is dead and getting deader. Dealers are old and getting older.

In short order they are going the way of the dinosaur. New collectors are younger and have matured in the digital age. They will present themselves and their collections online, not so much the old-fashioned way. In general, demand will not return to pre levels for at least 20 years, in my opinion. The reasoning is elementary: Sage advice for Boomers: And for you younger generations: By the time the somethings are 80 and their children are 60, what they bought cheap now will be expensive once again in the s.

This is not just a trend, this is The New Order. As always, there are exceptions to the New Rule: For various reasons too complex to explain on this page, each category has added strength even in these times. The market for antiques remains unchanged: The short advice for Boomers: The long advice for young people: Yes, interest in antiques is getting weaker for most categories but there is still some sustained strength for specific niche categories, i.

The opposite is true for you young whippersnappers. What we are experiencing in the antiques trade now is going to continue for another 20 years. Because the Boomers are dumping all of their junk into the marketplace as they downsize from their McMansions to quarters that make sense: The world is a-changing.

If you do not adapt — go with the flow — then you will be left behind and the assets that you have accumulated over your lifetime will slowly erode your net asset value.

Your estate will be diminished by your inaction. Get your act together, NOW! The current market is jittery and very cautious due to several negative dynamics: Until the parameters of these risks are defined, assessed, and measured, the wider market will likely remain stagnant.

Demand for most categories of antiques and collectibles will likely remain stagnant for a different, longer lasting reason: Nonetheless, they are dispersing their personal property amongst their heirs and dumping what remains en masse at auction. Uncertainty in the marketplace is manifested by dealers consuming their existing stock, commonly at diminished margins or at a loss, rather than refreshing inventories at auctions. Consequently collectors have been and are buying at auction because product availability is often far better and less expensive at auction than in retail shops.

Older collectors who remain optimistic in spite of the obvious and continue to buy will erode the net asset value of their Estate.

And for younger generations: As always, there are exceptions to the rule: For various reasons too complex to explain on this page, each category has added strength even in the face of The New Order. If you are young and clueless, now is the time to become self-informed and to buy, buy, buy! Watch this billionaire talk. When sold at auction, personal properties will likely realize only a fraction of their original retail price because the auction venue is chiefly wholesale and the market is trending down and will likely continue to trend downward for at least two more decades because of changing demographics.

However, the end results of an auction sale of personal property may provide extreme anomalies: Auction sales results usually fall within a steep bell curve.

The peak of the curve mostly falls in the middle of a calculated presale estimate a low-to-high range, e. This scenario is oft repeated around the world. Current market stylistic trends will likely compound the loss effect.

Downsizing Boomers are dumping their personal property en masse at auction. Much of that consigned property reflects the decorating crazes of the s through the s. Furniture collected during this period was often refinished and brown, literally, as most wood is and most period styles are. The current market continues to be jittery and very cautious due to several negative dynamics mentioned in earlier Market Reports on these pages: Sounds too grim to live another day?

Before you slit your wrists confer with an accredited appraiser of personal property to see if ending it all is your only solution. You may be surprised how much can be salvaged from past extravagances. The current market trend in a word is — caution, due to several negative dynamics: Why a European calamity now?

Until the parameters of these risks are defined, assessed, and measured, the wider market demand for art, antiques, and collectibles will likely remain stagnant in the short term except for the noble metals silver, gold, platinum, palladium , which will continue to fluctuate as a popular commodity, and a handful of categories that appear to defy the new norm. Over the long haul, though, the some of the pummeled categories should gradually gain in value over time after market jitters subside, but not all.

I do not expect the popular collectibles of the 60s, 70s, and 80s to recover: Furthermore, due to the uncertainty in the marketplace many dealers have been consuming their existing stock, sometimes at diminished margins or at a loss, rather than refreshing inventories at auctions.

Thus their shops are depleted and look haggard, a combination which tends to perpetuate demise. Hence collectors have been and are buying at auction because product availability is better at auction than in retail shops. Until the parameters of these risks are defined, assessed, and measured, the wider market demand for art, antiques, and collectibles will likely remain stagnant in the short term.

Over the long haul though these categories should gradually gain in value after market jitters subside. Due to the uncertainty in the marketplace many dealers have been consuming their existing stock, sometimes at diminished margins or at a loss, rather than refreshing inventories at auctions.

The overall effect on the market is lower prices. Like many tech companies, Facebook has long taken a hands off approach to its advertising business. Unlike traditional media companies that select the audiences they offer advertisers, Facebook generates its ad categories automatically based both on what users explicitly share with Facebook and what they implicitly convey through their online activity. In the wake of the violent protests in Charlottesville by right-wing groups that included self-described Nazis, Facebook and other tech companies vowed to strengthen their monitoring of hate speech.

But Facebook apparently did not intensify its scrutiny of its ad buying platform. Last year, ProPublica also collected a list of the advertising categories Facebook was providing to advertisers.

We found it, but discovered that the category — with only 2, people in it — was too small for Facebook to allow us to buy an ad pegged only to Jew haters. These ad categories were tiny. Still, Facebook said we needed more — so we added people with an interest in the National Democratic Party of Germany, a far-right, ultranationalist political party, with its much larger viewership of , Once we had our audience, we submitted our ad — which promoted an unrelated ProPublica news article.

Within 15 minutes, Facebook approved our ad, with one change. A few days later, Facebook sent us the results of our campaigns. Since we contacted Facebook, most of the anti-Semitic categories have disappeared. Get our stories by email. Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.

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